Reform and Greens eye major by-election scalp amid Burnham row

Reform UK and the Green Party are eyeing victory in 2026's first parliamentary by-election, as Sir Keir Starmer faces internal revolt over the decision to block Andy Burnham from standing for Labour.

The Gorton and Denton by-election is to take place on 26 February.

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It was called after suspended Labour MP Andrew Gwynne decided to stand down, and many saw it as a chance for ambitious and popular Mr Burnham to return to Westminster.

But Labour's ruling National Executive Committee has decided not to allow him to run for the seat, which is located in Greater Manchester, therefore ending - for now at least - any chance of a leadership bid.

The prime minister defended the decision, saying it would have diverted party resources away from May's local elections, and potentially force another by-election for Mr Burnham's mayoralty.

Sky's chief political correspondent Jon Craig said in a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party on Monday night, the attorney general - a key ally of Sir Keir - had to bat off "plenty of gripes" from MPs about the decision.

Craig said many believe the prime minister "has bungled this badly", treating Mr Burnham "unfairly" and also "made himself weaker".

Attorney General Lord Hermer told colleagues he did not underestimate the challenge the party faced, but insisted the government's policies will "take hold" and "chance this country for the better and for the long-term".

It is now understood that more than 50 Labour MPs from across the party have written to Sir Keir Starmer about the decision, warning that it has left them with a "huge amount of anxiety and anger".

In the letter, they added that losing the Gorton and Denton seat to Reform UK would be "unimaginable" and is an issue that "all of us must now take very seriously".

"This decision is a real gift to Nigel Farage," the letter continues.

It calls on the PM to reconvene the NEC and reconsider the decision, stating there is "no legitimate reason" why Mr Burnham should not have been able to run, and that blocking him risks "the idea that politics is a remote stitch-up from a small group of people at the very top in London".

A second, separate letter has also been sent to Sir Keir about the same issue, this time by the seven MPs on the executive committee of the Tribune group, a caucus within the party.

Only Burnham would do a better job as PM than Starmer

The anger over the NEC's decision comes as an exclusive poll for Sky News has revealed that only Andy Burnham would do a better job as prime minister than Sir Keir.

30% of the general public polled thought Mr Burnham would do a better job, while 12% thought he would do a worse job.

Other leading potential leadership contenders all came out worse, in a boost for the PM.

Only 12% thought former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner would do a better job vs 37% a worse job.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting would do a worse job according to 19% of those polled, verses 12% who thought he'd be better.

While 22% of people polled thought Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood would do a worse job, as opposed to 8% who thought she would do a better job.

What happened last time?

Labour won the Gorton and Denton seat with a majority of 13,413 in the 2024 general election - over half the vote.

Reform came second on 14.1%, and the Greens were third with 13.2%.

Both believe they can win when voters go to the polls next month.

Labour face 'anti-Starmer vote'

Nigel Farage said his party will announce its candidate today, and that "an anti-Keir Starmer vote" will prove crucial.

"There would have been a pro-Burnham anti-Starmer vote, that won't be there any more, and I think the anti-Starmer vote will come to us," he said.

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Sky's political correspondent Alexandra Rogers understands the Greens will announce a candidate on Sunday, but leader Zack Polanski won't be standing.

While he has a claim to northern roots (he was born in Salford), Polanski lives in Hackney, north London, and it's understood he's more likely to run for a seat in the capital.

But he is expected to visit the constituency this week.

A party source said: "We're throwing the kitchen sink at this, and believe we can win."

(c) Sky News 2026: Reform and Greens eye major by-election scalp amid Burnham row