The latest YouGov poll predicts that nine Hampshire constituencies would be won by Reform UK if an election was called tomorrow.
The second YouGov poll – of 13,000 voters – since the last election shows a Reform UK government would be projected to win 311 seats, just 15 short of a majority.
The Local Democracy Reporting Service looked at what the poll said about how Hampshire residents would be predicted to vote.
The poll predicts that residents in the following nine constituencies would swing to Reform UK if an election was called tomorrow: New Forest East, New Forest West, Fareham and Waterlooville, Basingstoke, Portsmouth North, Havant, Gosport, Isle of Wight West and Isle of Wight East.
Voters in Portsmouth North, Basingstoke and Isle of Wight West voted Labour in 2024, predicting the loss of three Labour party parliamentary seats.
Voters in New Forest East, New Forest West, Fareham and Waterlooville, Havant, Gosport, Isle of Wight East all voted Conservative in 2024, predicting the loss of six Conservative party parliamentary seats to Reform.
The poll also suggests Hamble Valley, North West Hampshire, Romsey and Southampton would remain Conservative as at the 2024 election.
Winchester, Eastleigh and North East Hampshire would remain Lib Dem as in 2024.
The poll also predicts East Hasmphire would go from voting Conservative to Lib Dem and Portsmouth South would remain a Labour strong hold.
Farnham and Bordon which cuts across Hampshire and Surrey is predicted to swing from Conservative to Lib Dem.
This week saw two Hampshire ward councillor defections to Reform UK. New Forest District ward councillor for Lymington, Cllr Barry Dunning, was the first Hampshire County Councillor to defect to Reform UK.
Cllr Dunning said he made the decision because his politics no longer aligned with the Conservative Party, particularly as he has been campaigning against parking restrictions on Lymington High Street.
He said being at the coal face as a councillor meant making cuts to resident services, which he said he did not join politics to do.
Basingstoke and Deane Borough councillor Paul Miller also left the Conservative Party and joined Reform UK this week.
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