Shoppers hunting value as grocery price inflation ticks up

Grocery price inflation has ticked up from 2024 lows amid fears rising energy prices and poor harvests will place further upwards pressure on the cost of living this winter.

Data from Worldpanel by Numerator, which tracks supermarket sales and prices, showed grocery inflation rising to an annual rate of 2.3% over the four weeks to 6 September.

The rate was reported at 2.1% the previous month - its lowest level since October 2024.

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Worldpanel said its data showed signs that rising bills, such as those for fuel and household energy, were already altering spending choices.

It noted 18 million fewer trips to the supermarket over the four-week period compared to the July peak.

Across all grocery items, spending on deals rose by £243m - 7% higher than a year earlier.

The tracker also highlighted a drop of more than 12% in school uniform spending, in what is traditionally the busiest month for those purchases.

While the UK grocery market is highly competitive amid a fierce battle for market share, chains themselves are facing upwards price pressures as manufacturers endure higher costs from ingredients to delivery.

Oil prices are 60% up on where they stood a year ago, for example, due to the effects of the US-Iran war, while many other commodity prices have also shot up.

Wheat costs are up by a quarter following poor yields caused by the summer heatwaves.

The risk is that these hikes are passed on to consumers.

It is hoped, however, that the battle for customers among supermarkets will continue to help limit price rises through sustained loyalty programme and promotional activity.

While petrol and diesel costs have hit their highest levels since 2022 this week, some industry forecasts see the energy price cap rising above £2,000 a year from January given the increases in wholesale natural gas prices seen in recent weeks.

Such a figure would represent an increase of more than £300 on the cap level due to come into force at the end of this month.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said of the data: "While grocery inflation ticked up modestly last month, it remains significantly lower than the levels we saw earlier in the year, giving households some welcome breathing room."

He added: "Value is the watchword for parents this back-to-school season.

"More than four in 10 households (44%) are now prioritising keeping costs low above all else when it comes to buying uniform, even if that means compromising slightly on quality, while a third (33%) are still looking to strike a balance between the two.

"It's a clear sign that, for many families, the return to school is landing at a difficult time financially, and retailers who can offer reassurance on price without compromising on quality will stand in good stead."

(c) Sky News 2026: Shoppers hunting value as grocery price inflation ticks up